Open Science Collaboration finds that only 39% of psychology studies are reproducible

The August 28th issue of Science published an article by the Open Science Collaboration which found that the results of only 39% of psychology studies were reproducible. CTPC member Misha Pavel is one of 270 authors on this paper.


Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Read the full article:

Open Science Collaboration. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science 28 August 2015: Vol. 349 no. 6251
DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4716

See the in-depth companion piece by John Bohannon:

Bohannon, J. Many psychology papers fail the replication test. Science 28 August 2015: Vol. 349 no. 6251 pp. 910-911
DOI: 10.1126/science.349.6251.910.